Strange data from Europe
My first post.
Since this summer I have been following the development of the total excess mortality in the countries plotted by Euromomo.
The reason for this has been discussed extensively, for example here:
http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/
In few words: absolute (or relative) mortality is a "strong" and reliable statistic, since the event "died" is difficult to be falsified and leaves no room for interpretation (unlike Covid cases, Covid symptoms, died with or because of Covid, etc.). And it is above all and at the end what it counts!
Now: Euromomo plots this excess mortality here every week https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
I noticed that the curve of excess mortality for the age group 0-14 has become significantly different last week (Bullettin from week 47) compared to the previous Bullettins (week 46 and earlier).
Source (compare the data in the quoted tweets):
In particular, the curve in 2021 looks different (it is lower) and even more astonishingly, the curve from 2017 (it is significantly higher) has changed drastically.
Now regarding the 2021 curve: I could expect the 2021 curve to change (compared to the reference year 2016), because the data are not yet convergent (for example due to the delay in receiving / communicating deaths by individual countries). But assuming the (2016) baseline data is correct (as a long time has passed), I would expect the corrections to be only upward (as some deaths in recent weeks may have been reported later), but not downward ( except if some people are resurrected over the weeks). And that was the first thing that I found very strange.
As for 2017: it is even stranger, since the data for 2017 and the reference (2016) are expected to be more or less frozen in 2021, as both are data from a long time ago. But 2017 has changed a lot compared to 2016 (it has increased)! This variation means that in week 47 of 2021 some countries reported (with delay) 200 more deaths between the ages of 0 and 14 relative to the year 2017. And this too a very strange stuff.
So I continued my investigation and found the following.
The latest bulletins of 2021 have always involved 25 or 26 countries.
Source:
https://euromomo.eu/bulletins/2021-46/
Suddenly 29 countries got involved in last week's week 47 bulletin.
Source:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
Now, this may partly explain that the curves have changed, even relative to 2017. But realistically speaking, with only 3 countries added to 29, the 2017 and 2021 death rates have changed too much compared to 2016.
For example: according to the Bulletin of week 47, 2017 ends at +500 deaths compared to 2016, while in the Bulletin of week 46 it ends at +300. This means that these 3 added countries were responsible for more than 66% of deaths in excess of the statistic with 26 nations. This does not seem realistic to me and, at best, these nations should have been cataloged as outliers and therefore not added to the statistics.
And you know what, in week 47 (last week) the EMA recommended the approval of vaccination for children aged 5 to 11 years, that is, a part of this age group. What a strange timing, isnt’it!?
Source:
Also because with a good eye from these curves we can once again see how the excess mortality curves for the age 0-14 do not show any COVID wave (neither the first, nor the second or third wave, this means that this age group does not "see" the random event called COVID in terms of excess mortality).
But above all: up to the Bulletin of week 46 there was an increasing monotony trend in 2021, which starts almost suddenly around week 22, and a short search is enough to see how this is precisely the week in which vaccinations were allowed for the age group 12-15 years, which therefore also includes the age group 12-14, in turn included in the 0-14. But of course it is not possible to find any correlation with this event :D
Source:
https://ema.europa.eu/en/news/first-covid-19-vaccine-approved-children-aged-12-15-eu
Before that, the curve was going down or was pretty flat. Why does it start to rise (monotonously according to the week 46 bulletin) from week 22?
Of course nobody from institutions is concerned about that…
I find the comparison with the other years very interesting: the trend from 2021 for this age group (but also for the others, for which this growing monotonous trend starts earlier the higher the age group: here too, what a strange coincidence right !?) from the 22nd week it seems very strange to me also due to the fact that for the other years in the summer the curves are rather flat (this happens approximately also for other age groups, probably because the variance plays a role only during flu seasons), but not in 2021. Which means that something structural has changed between the years of comparison.
It must be said that the year 2020 for the 0-14 range also presents a particular (downward) trend. And here it would be interesting to discuss: online school and therefore fewer accidents at school? But it is certainly not anomalous in the sense touted by the media, as excess mortality is negative. But since the decreasing trend of 2020, which begins with the first wave approximately, then stops exactly in spring 2021, this seems more than suspicious to me.
PS: this study could eventually confirm, the the increasing trend is concentrated around vaccination campaigns:
"They" care enough to fiddle the data, but don't care that they can be found out. They are sloppy, but the MSM will cherry pick.
Good post, good sleuthing Joe.